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Journal Introduction

Modern Disease Control and Prevention was founded in 1972 under the original title Henan Journal of Preventive Medicine. The journal is governed by the Health Commission of Henan Province. It is sponsored by the Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Henan Preventive Medicine Association. In 1997, it was included in China Academic Journals (CD-ROM Edition). In 2000, it received the “Outstanding Award for Implementing the Specifications of Retrieval and Evaluation” of China Academic Journals (CD-ROM Edition). In the same year, it was indexed in the Wanfang Digital Journals Group, the SinoMed, and the Chinese Scientific Journals Database. In 2001, it was included in the Chinese Core Journals (Selection) Database. In 2006, it joined the series of journals of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association. It won the “Outstanding Progress Award” (2007–2008) and the “Third Prize for Excellent Journals” (2011–2012) in the series of journals of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association. The Journal aims to serve the development of the national economy and the policy of “prevention first” in public health, to disseminate new theories, technologies, and achievements in preventive medicine from both domestic and international sources, to promote the exchange of preventive medicine information domestically and internationally, and to contribute to the development and academic exchange of preventive medicine.

Issue 06,2026
传染病与突发公共卫生事件应急监测与预警专题

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Henan Province, 2005-2025

GUO Xiaofang;LUO Jun;HUANG Jiamin;SUN Xiangyuan;WANG Panpan;ZHANG Yu;QI Haihui;CHEN Wei;

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Henan Province from 2005 to 2025, thereby providing scientific basis for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on reported data of notifiable infectious diseases in Henan Province from 2005 to 2025. Joinpoint regression 5.4.0 was employed to analyze incidence trends, the simple seasonal index method was used to assess seasonal patterns, and ArcGIS 10.8 was applied to examine spatial distribution. Results A total of10 433 326 cases of 35 types of notifiable infectious diseases were reported, with an average annual reported incidence of520.28/105, demonstrating an overall increasing trend(AAPC=6.40%, P<0.05). Class A and B infectious diseases accounted for48.64%(5 074 385 cases), while Class C diseases accounted for 51.36%(5 358 941 cases). The incidence of Class A and B diseases(excluding COVID-19) showed an overall decreasing trend(AAPC =-4.98%, P <0.05); viral hepatitis, pulmonary tuberculosis, syphilis, dysentery, and gonorrhea were the top five diseases, comprising 86.89%(4 409 276/5 074 385)of Class A and B cases. Class C diseases exhibited an overall increasing trend(AAPC =15.09%, P <0.05); influenza, hand-foot-mouth disease, other infectious diarrheal diseases, mumps, and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were the top five, accounting for99.72%(5 344 045/5 358 941)of Class C cases. Among Class A and B diseases, bloodborne and sexually transmitted infections had the highest average annual incidence(142.08/105) with an overall downward trend, followed by respiratory infectious diseases(89.25/105), which showed a “decrease-increase-decrease” pattern. Intestinal infectious diseases declined, whereas natural focal and vector-borne diseases remained at low and stable levels. Regions with relatively high incidence of Class A and B diseases were Jiaozuo(333.53/105), Zhengzhou(312.97/105), and Luohe(310.16/105). For Class C diseases,high-incidence regions were Zhengzhou(824.36/105), Jiaozuo(449.11/105), and Luoyang(428.27/105). Class A and B diseases peaked in spring and summer with a male-to-female ratio of 1.47∶1, 86.12% of cases occurred in individuals aged 20-<70 years, and 71.54%were farmers, homemakers, and unemployed individuals. Class C diseases peaked in winter and spring, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.22 ∶1, 61.83% of cases were in children aged 0-<10 years, and 72.62% were scattered children, students, and kindergarten children. Conclusions Since 2005, the reported incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Henan Province has fluctuated significantly. Strengthened prevention and control efforts should be focused on diseases with a marked increasing trend(e.g., influenza and other infectious diarrheal diseases), high-burden diseases(e.g., hepatitis B and pulmonary tuberculosis), and challenging diseases(e.g., natural focal and vector-borne infectious diseases).

Issue 06 ,2026 v.37 ;
[Downloads: 146 ] [Citations: 0 ] [Reads: 10 ] PDF Cite this article

Epidemiological characteristics and comparative analysis of public health emergency surveillance and reporting in Henan Province before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

WANG Mengru;ZHANG Yu;SUN Xiangyuan;WANG Panpan;HUANG Jiamin;LIU Ke;QI Haihui;WANG Hao;LI Menglei;

Objective To compare the characteristics of public health emergency surveillance and reporting in Henan Province before and after the COVID-19 pandemic by using the emergence, evolution, and policy adjustment of the pandemic as temporal milestones, thereby providing empirical evidence for optimizing prevention and control strategies. Methods A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on public health emergencies reported by the surveillance system in Henan Province from2017 to 2025. Results From 2017 to 2025, a total of 787 public health emergencies and related incidents were recorded in Henan Province, involving 10 149 cases and 52 deaths. Infectious disease-related events were predominant, accounting for 95.3%(750/787) of all reports. The majority of reports(74.2%, 584/787) were concentrated during the emergency response period of the COVID-19 outbreak(2020—2022), with a statistically significant difference(P<0.05) in event compositions observed during the period. Unclassified events accounted for 76.6%(603/787) and demonstrated a significant linear increasing trend over time(P <0.05, Cochran-Armitage trend test). Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted the stability of the public health emergency reporting structures in Henan Province in the short term. However, the capacity for identifying and reporting abnormal health events at the community level has been significantly improved. Based on the prevention and control needs of the post-pandemic era, it is recommended that all regions in Henan Province continue to enhance the sensitivity of public health emergency surveillance, strengthen comprehensive prevention and control efforts in emergency response and management, and provide support for building a more resilient public health system.

Issue 06 ,2026 v.37 ;
[Downloads: 51 ] [Citations: 0 ] [Reads: 9 ] PDF Cite this article

Epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies in Henan Province, 2015-2024

LI Menglei;CHEN Wei;YOU Aiguo;LIU Ke;ZHANG Yu;

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of public health emergencies reported in Henan Province from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control. Methods Data on public health emergencies reported in Henan Province from 2015-2024 were retrieved from the Public Health Emergency Management subsystem of the Information System for Disease Prevention and Control in China. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted,including the overall situation, temporal, type, and regional distribution, as well as the distribution of school-based public health emergencies. Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 277 public health emergencies at various levels were reported by county(district) centers for disease control and prevention in Henan Province, involving 6 186 cases. The incidence rate was 0.25%, and the case fatality rate was 0.91%. General events accounted for 141 cases(50.90%), and infectious disease events constituted 235 cases(84.84%). The average annual number of reported incidents was 27.7. The year 2019 recorded the highest number of incidents(46 events, 16.61%), followed by 2017(38 events, 13.72%). The monthly distribution showed an average of 23.08 events, with two reporting peaks from May to July(58 events, 20.94%) and October to December(99 events, 35.74%). The top three cities by the number of incident reports were Luoyang(47 events, 16.97%), Zhengzhou(40 events, 14.44%), and Anyang(38 events, 13.72%).The top five infectious diseases reported were varicella(54 events, 22.97%), dengue fever(25 events, 10.64%), mumps(19 events,8.09%), visceral leishmaniasis(17 events, 7.23%), and monkeypox case(17 events, 7.23%). A total of 126 public health emergencies occurred in schools, predominantly infectious disease events(109 events, 86.51%), with primary schools being the primary setting(72 events, 57.14%). Varicella was the leading cause of school-bases events(54 events, 42.86%). Conclusions Public health emergencies in Henan Province are predominantly infectious disease events. Relevant authorities should further improve the joint prevention and control mechanism, optimize the epidemic monitoring and early warning system, and strengthen risk assessment and emergency response capacity building for infectious disease-related public health emergencies. Infectious diseases are also a key focus for prevention and control in schools, with primary schools requiring prioritized measures. Implementation of key infectious disease prevention and control strategies in schools is essential.

Issue 06 ,2026 v.37 ;
[Downloads: 39 ] [Citations: 0 ] [Reads: 11 ] PDF Cite this article

Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases among children under 15 years old in Henan Province, 2015-2024

WANG Panpan;HUANG Jiamin;SUN Xiangyuan;ZHANG Yu;QI Haihui;WANG Mengru;WANG Hao;CHEN Wei;GUO Xiaofang;

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of notifiable infectious diseases among children under 15 years old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating infectious disease prevention and control strategies for this population. Methods Data on notifiable infectious disease among children under 15 years old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2024 were collected from the "China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention". Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics. Arc GIS 10.8 software was used to generate regional distribution maps. The annual percentage change(APC) and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated to analyze trends in reported incidence rates. Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 30 types of notifiable infectious diseases were reported among children under 15 years old in Henan Province, with 2 180 506 cases. The average annual reported incidence rate was 1 050.75/105. The majority of the cases were classified as Class C infectious diseases(94.51%). There were statistically significant differences in the reported incidence rates of overall, Class B, and Class C infectious diseases across different years(P<0.05). The average annual reported incidence rate was higher in males(1 102.76/105) than in females(987.79/105). Scattered children were the primary affected group(47.56%, 1 037 140 cases), and 75.39%(1 643 894 cases) of the cases were concentrated in the age group under 6 years old. There were two peaks in the temporal distribution: a small peak in March and a major peak in December. There were staistically significant regional differences in the average annual reported incidence rates(χ2=2 057 948.81, P<0.05), showing a pattern of high incidence in central and western Henan, with a gradient decrease in southern and eastern Henan. Zhengzhou City had the highest average annual reported incidence rate(3 838.93/105). Respiratory(56.55%, 1 233 152 cases) and intestinal infectious(42.92%, 935 907 cases) were the main transmission routes. The reported incidence rate of respiratory infectious diseases significantly increased(AAPC=29.36%, P<0.05), while that of intestinal infectious diseases showed a fluctuating downward trend(AAPC=-9.01%, P<0.05). The top five reported diseases accounted for 95.95%,namely influenza, hand-foot-mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea, mumps, and novel coronavirus infection. Conclusions From2015 to 2024, the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases among children under 15 years old in Henan Province were influenced by multiple factors, including population, season, and region. Young children and scattered children were the key populations, respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases were the core priorities for prevention and control; and central and western Henan were the key areas. It is necessary to focus on key populations, regions, and diseases, implement a multi-disease prevention strategy, and establish a prevention and control early warning system based on seasonal disease characteristics to continuously optimize the prevention and control strategies for infectious diseases among children under 15 years old in Henan Province.

Issue 06 ,2026 v.37 ;
[Downloads: 98 ] [Citations: 0 ] [Reads: 13 ] PDF Cite this article

Epidemiological characteristics and evaluation of an incidence trend prediction model for scarlet fever in Henan Province, 2015-2025

SUN Xiangyuan;HUANG Jiamin;WANG Panpan;ZHANG Yu;QI Haihui;WANG Mengru;WANG Hao;CHEN Wei;GUO Xiaofang;

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of scarlet fever in Henan Province from2015 to 2025, and to evaluate the application performance of different time series prediction models in forecasting the epidemic trend of the disease. Methods The incidence data of scarlet fever in Henan Province from 2015 to 2025 were collected from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term incidence trend. SARIMA, XGBoost, and Prophet models were constructed using R 4.5.1 software to predict the incidence of scarlet fever in Henan Province from January to September 2025. The prediction performance of the models was evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE), root mean squared error(RMSE), mean error rate(MER), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error(SMAPE). Results A total of 16 071 scarlet fever cases were reported in Henan Province from 2015 to 2025, with no deaths,and the annual average incidence rate was 1.52 per 100 000 population. The incidence showed an annual bimodal seasonal distribution each year, with peaks concentrated from April to July and from November to January of the following year. The disease was highly prevalent in children aged 4-<10 years and in northern cities of Henan Province. The incidence trend presented phased changes: the number of cases decreased significantly from 2019 to 2022(APC=-47.85%, P<0.05), and increased rapidly from 2023 onward(APC=105.62%, P<0.05). Prophet model had the optimal comprehensive performance, with MAE(22.96),RMSE(28.50), MER(11.87%), and SMAPE(17.64%) all lower than those of SARIMA and XGBoost models. It showed a good short-term prediction performance(≤5 months), and prediction accuracy gradually decreased when the forecasting period exceeded 5 months. Conclusions The incidence trend of scarlet fever in Henan Province from 2015 to 2025 presented a three-stage pattern of "stability-plunge-recovery", with relatively stable distribution characteristics in terms of population and regions. In short-term prediction, Prophet model exhibited better performance compared with SARIMA and XGBoost models.

Issue 06 ,2026 v.37 ;
[Downloads: 97 ] [Citations: 0 ] [Reads: 9 ] PDF Cite this article
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Governed by: Health Commission of Henan Province

Sponsored by: Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Henan Preventive Medicine Association

Address: No. 105, Nongye South Road, Zhengdong New District, Zhengzhou, Henan, China

Postal Code: 450016

Tel: +86-371-68089072, 68089097

E-mail: hnyfj@126.com

ISSN 2097-2717, CN 41-1464/R

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